If this is the case a correction should not delay

That we reserve the US economy and the world This question was the last year a debate between two camps. One announced that the United States would have to face a recession in V, of short durationeight months as recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001 - and shallow, with a decoupling between the US slowdown and global conditions. The other side, which I was contended that, given the excessive leverage effects (in households, financial institutions and companies), it should expect a recession in U, long term - doomed to last for 24 months - and deep without decoupling between the US slowdown and global conditions.

Today, this is 20 months that the United States are immersed in the recession - world become recession in summer 2008, with a wide recoupling. The position of the curve v and decoupling fell into the water. In sixty years, it is the worst recession the United States and the world have known. If, in all likelihood the US leaving at the end of the year, can talk about three times as long and about five times more deep recession than the previous two - in terms of withdrawal of the production.

The current consensus among economists is that the recession is already over, that the United States and the world are about to restore growth and that they run no risk of relapse. Unfortunately, this new consensus may be equally illusory was the scenario of the proponents of the curve v for three years. The United States recorded an increase in unemployment, a decline in consumption, a persistence of the decline in industrial production, and a weakness in the housing market: the recession is far from finished. A similar finding in many other advanced economies indicates, as in the US, the bottom, although close, if it has not yet been achieved. Most emerging economies may return to growth, their performances are well below their potential.

A variety of reasons are that the advanced economies are likely to register an anemic growth well below historical levels, for another two years at least. The first reason is likely to create a long-term slowdown: households need to reduce leverage and saving more, which will cause a contraction in long-term consumption. Second reason, the financial system - banks and non-banking institutions - is in a serious condition. Credit, including the growing lack of strength, may fuel consumption or investment. Third reason, excessive inventory consisting of businesses will have a negative impact on profits, if growth remains anemic and deflationary outbreaks persist. Result, they are increasing their investment spending. Fourth reason, beatings of lever that has given the public sector, through huge budget deficits and a permissive debt, threaten to inhibit private investment. These incentive effects dissipate by early next year, and the private sector should make more efforts to support growth.

There is today the settlement of private demand, including consumption, in countries that have a strong tendency to the expenditure (United States, United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, etc.), while its progress was not fast enough in the countries which have a strong tendency to savings (China, Asia, Germany, Japan, etc.) to stem the decline in net exports of these countries. There is therefore a decrease in overall demand induced by excessive stocks, pushing the strength of a global economic recovery.

Also today, there are two reasons to fear a recession in W. First, the strategy out of loose monetary and fiscal policy may be botched because officials will be beaten anathema - whether or not they apply it. If they take seriously their budget deficits (and eventual monetization of these deficits), they increased taxes, reduce spending and covered the excess liquidity, they are likely to further weaken the recovery. But if they do not address their huge budget deficits and continue to monetize them, bond markets to rebel sooner or later - once the attenuated deflationary forces. At this stage, should expect a surge of inflation, the increase in the actuarial margin of the Treasury bills, and the recovery will be blocked.

The second reason fear a recession in W relates to the fact that the oil, energy and food may be faster that is advocated by economic fundamentals, and this increase could be aggravated by the liquidity wall which attracts to the assets, as well as by the application of speculation. Last year, the world economy tipped when oil reached 145 dollars, causing a shock wave that struck the United States, Europe, the Japan, China and the India - all oil-importing countries. The world economy relies just today and, if these same speculative forces push the barrel to $ 100, the shock of a contraction could be fatal.

At the end of the year, this severe global recession will be more close to end than it is today, the recovery in advanced economies will be more anemic than robust, and the W curve will be more accurate. The improvement of the real economy is probably not mature for the bouncing of the-stock exchange, raw materials, and credit - markets that took place recently. If this is the case, a correction should not delay.